The Cosepp Financial Analyst

May  2008   -    monthly newspaper

Bourse: Share Trader's Portfolio is up 110%  See below for all details.

Analytical Articles 

Australian Interest Rates ... whereto... in the immediate future ??   The adjacent graph illustrates, as at 30 April 2008, how official interest rates in the United States and Australia compare and, in particular, how they have moved in recent months.

As can be seen, interest rates in Australia are so much higher than those in the United States.

Why?

Principally because Australia has a huge foreign debt which needs regular re-financing from overseas sources, and the competition for this finance has become more fierce and additionally aggravated in recent months by the contagion of the US subprime credit mortgage imbroglio.

Financial institutions currently do not trust another of their peers that has, as assets on its balance sheet, an inordinate cache of CDOs (Collateralised Debt Obligations). The values of these CDOs are uncertain, an uncertainty that has spilled over into an uncertainty and loss of credit confidence generally in the United States (and elsewhere).

When will this credit uncertainty end ??

You tell me.

But I suspect that it may end when the importance of these CDOs diminish substantially, which may then result in a corresponding uplift in credit confidence. This is basic economics logic.

Catholic Holy Mass... is the daily Sacrifice.   Devout Catholics go to Holy Mass regularly. So what is Holy Mass?

According to private revelations given to Fr. Stefano Gobbi by Our Lady, the Madonna, the Blessed Virgin Mary:

"The Holy Mass is the daily Sacrifice, the pure oblation which is offered to the Lord everywhere, from the rising of the sun to its going down."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 485.t).

"The Sacrifice of the Mass renews that which was accomplished by Jesus on Calvary..."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 485.u).

Jesus said: "... I have longed and longed to share this pachal meal with you before my passion..."    (Luke 22.15).

Russia... restricts entry of Catholic priests.   Russia has recently introduced new visa entry measures, ostensibly to regulate the entry of foreign workers into its country.

But the way I look at it, the measures have really been aimed at Catholic priests, to prevent them from entering Russia to tend to their Catholic Russian flock, by putting heavy obstacles in the priests' path.

About 90% of the Catholic clergy in Russia is non-Russian, many of whom are Polish priests. These priests, by reason of the new laws, can only stay in Russia for about 6 months, and then must return back to their native Poland.

The effect of all this deprives or restricts the Russian Catholics the benefits of practising their Catholic religion, which in essence is what the Russian Government really wants.

Bird Flu... new cases confirmed in Japan.   In a recent announcement, Japanese authorities have confirmed new cases of bird flu, this time in swans.

In a Japanese lake, a number of swans was found to be debilitated, and some dead, all infected with bird flu, of a type that can mutate and capable of being transmitted to humans.

This latest outbreak has caused some concern in Japan.

The 2020 Summit... a feel good experience for all concerned ??   I think I can still hear the effervescence continuing to overflow, the feel good experience for all those concerned with the 2020 Summit held in Canberra.

But what did the get-together achieve, if anything?

Can someone tell me?

Food Prices Rising... why the crisis ??   Of late, the prices of basic foodstuffs such as wheat, corn, rice, and sugar have soared over the last 6-18 months, some say because of drought in various parts of the world. These foodstuffs sustain most of mankind around the world.

True, there has been some drought in some countries, but the real reason for rising food prices lies elsewhere.

With the soaring price of crude oil and therefore of petrol, or of gas as it's called in the United States, refiners and car manufacturers have looked at other alternative fuels to power motor cars. And they have found ethanol.

Now ethanol is an organic fuel, which is derived from the fermentation of starches or sugars, of foodstuffs such as wheat, rice, corn, and sugar.

So why is the price of these foodstuffs  soaring ??

The answer, of course, is that they are being converted into ethanol, in order to be used as fuel to drive motor cars.

In essence, then, rather than being used as food to feed the people, as intended, foodstuffs are being used as fuel to feed the insatiable appetites of motor cars.

But if that's not bad enough, an additional factor has creeped in  -- speculators. These speculators now see foodstuffs as an area to make money, to buy foodstuffs, store, and then sell them at higher prices.

Worldwide, about 100 million people are expected to be adversely affected by rising food prices. Shortages are expected, which will hit the poor and other disadvantaged people. This will mean hunger for them.

Liberal Party... around Australia.   It's rather curious to see how some Liberal Party apparatchiks seem to relish, at times, low popularity opinion polls published about their Party by some media groups.

Such relish would seem to be motivated more from the personal ambitions of those apparatchiks than from the greater interests of their own Party. Really, politics is, and always has been, all about satisfying personal ambitions first, and handing out left-over bread crumbs lastly to the masses.

The publication of these low opinion polls, if valid or not, mostly have one hidden agenda -- to de-stabilise the Party by arousing personal ambitions and to engender a change of leadership; and it is this regular change, ever so present, that leads to the loss of major popular support. But in the fierce internal covert fight for supremacy and control, this aspect usually gets lost or becomes blurred. A party consists of a group going forward together, pulling together, and not of one or two persons dictating.

Hence one lesson for the Liberal Party is patently obvious -- stop changing your leaders, and stop being goaded by the media or others into doing so. If you change often, people will not know what you stand for, ending up failing for everything and standing for nothing.

Australia needs a strong two party political system for democracy to function properly, honestly. Otherwise we'll continue to have a one-party state indefinitely.

Paedophilia... again.   Once again, allegations of paedophilia have raised their ugly head, this time in another State, as a result of an official judicial inquiry.

Numerous rather disturbing allegations came to light, about horrific and continuing paedophilia, child rapes. I hardly imagine that all these depraved actions just happened overnight. They have obviously been going on for considerable time.

So who have known about them, and who have covered up such depravity ??  Such wickedness ??  Such evil ??   Evil.   Evil.

"If anyone sins in that he hears a public adjuration to testify and though he is a witness, whether he has seen or come to know the matter, yet does not speak, he shall bear his iniquity."   (Lev.5.1).

It is absolutely contemptible that child rapes have occurred, and that no one had lifted a finger to help the innocent and defenceless and vulnerable children.

 "Whoever does wrong will be requited for the wrong done; there are no human preferences with God."    (Col.3.25).

Paedophilia is not just loathsome criminal conduct, it is also a repulsive, perverted, and unnatural act forced on vulnerable children who are too small and too weak to repel their rapists, who have sought a thrill at the expense of their victims' pain and suffering.

Paedophiles are monsters, predators who seek easy prey.

In the Holy Gospel according to Matthew, Jesus Christ said:   "And if anyone hurts the conscience of one of these little ones, that believe in me, he had better have been drowned in the depths of the sea, with a millstone hung about his neck. Woe to the world, for the hurt done to consciences!"    (Matt.18.6-7)

" ... but godliness is an abomination to a sinner. "    (Sir.1.25).

Small Shareholders... and broker agreements.    In the wake of the recent turmoil on the Australian sharemarket, some sharebroker agreements have come into the spotlight, especially in view of the fact that two brokers may have gone to the wall accompanied by forced sales of their clients' shareholdings.

The issues also have all the usual salacious toppings - short selling, uncertainty, entertainment, and so on.

The imbroglio is expected to take years to resolve, and could result in numerous lawsuits. Lawyers are expected to be big winners.

Maybe some who may have signed up to a broker agreement may have unwittingly assigned away some rights over to others. Individual careful scrutiny of any such agreements, especially of the fine print, should reveal the legal status (hopefully).

As always, though, the principle always remains the same, to cite in the Latin - "Caveat Emptor," i.e. "Buyer Beware."

Added to that must also be prudence and caution, which of late seem to have been cast off to the wind in the frenetic race to acquire super profits. I think that is called avarice.

The Sacrilege of Lucifer (Satan)... his pride, his fall, and the birth of Hell.   I feel sure that many of us have at times pondered and asked ourselves how Lucifer, who was the first and most beautiful of the spirits created by God, could have turned evil to become loathsome Satan, to rebel against his Creator, God.

Essentially, to rebel against God, Lucifer used pride, the sign of Satan, the first sign of Satan.

Satan, obviously, did not want to play second fiddle to no one.

But how many people, these days and in times past, have been so full of themselves, overflowing with similar pride? And of course the proverb has arisen... before the fall, comes the pride.

"But do not think that you will go unpunished for having tried to fight against God!"    (2 Mac.7.19.

Maria Valtorta (1961†) was having a discussion with her Guardian Angel, Azariah, about the fall of Lucifer who became loathsome Satan. And the following is an excerpt about the pride and rebellion and sacrileges of Lucifer (Satan), that Maria's Guardian Angel, Azariah, revealed to her:

Maria Valtorta says...

"And holy Azariah is silent, adoring [Jesus]. What peace! What peace in me, what light, what sensation of mental well-being, of a thought that is calmed by an answer that totally persuades it. And after the angelic lesson these [feelings] continue! I close my notebook with my treasure, and turn to manual work while my mind, gratified, contemplates the lesson it has had.

I re-read it later, meditate and stop short at the phrase: 'Lucifer [was] not holy to the point of being all love.' In the sublime concept that I have of the angels I do not succeed in grasping how a spirit such as an angel is, would have been able to have anything lacking. My amazement before the sin of the angels has always been invincible! And no one has ever given me an explanation that persuaded me as to how some of these spiritual beings had been able to sin [when they were] created by the perfect Will of God in a creation in which the element of 'Evil,' not yet formed, was lacking, and who were contemplating the eternal Perfection, and That alone. And now the phrase: 'not holy [to the point] of being all love,' stops me, stirring up anew my: 'How can that be.' Holy Azariah says to me:"

Azariah, Guardian Angel, explains...

"The angels are superior to men. I say 'men' in speaking of beings called thus, composed of matter and of spirit. We [angels], then, are superior, we [who are] all spirit. But recall that when Grace lives in man and [in him] circulates the Blood of the Mystical Body whose Head is Christ, and while the seven Sacraments strengthen him from birth to death for every state and for every phase of life, then in all of you -- 'living temples of the Lord,' -- we [angels] see the Lord and adore Him in you, and then you yourselves are superior to us: you are 'other Christs,' and you have what is called the 'Bread of angels' but is solely the Bread of men. What mystical, insatiable hunger for the Eucharist is in us, and how it makes us cleave to you when you nourish yourselves with It, so that we may smell the Divine fragrance of this perfect Food!

But to return to the initial point, I tell you that in the angels -- different in nature and perfection from all of you -- there is in the angels, as in you, free will. God has created no one a slave. In the beginning there was in creation only Order. But that Order does not exclude freedom. Rather in that Order is perfect freedom. To be exact, in such order there is not even the fear of an invasion, an intrusion, of the anarchy of other wills which could produce collusion [collision?] and ruin that penetrate into the orbit and trajectory of other beings or created things. Thus it was for the whole Universe, before Lucifer abused his own freedom and with his own will put into himself the disorder of passions, so as to create disorder in that perfect Order. Had he been all love, he would have had no place in himself for anything that was not love. Instead he had a place for arrogant pride which could be called: the disorder of the intellect.

Would God have been able to hinder this deed? Yes.  But why violate the free will of the most beautiful, most intelligent archangel? Would not He Himself, the Most Just, then have put disorder into His own ordered Thought? by no longer wanting what He had previously wanted: that is, the freedom of the archangel? God does not oppress a troubled spirit in order violently to place it in the impossibility of sinning. Lucifer's not sinning would then have had no merit. Even for us [angels] it was necessary 'to know how to want the Good' in order to continue to merit enjoying the vision of God, infinite Bliss!

As God had wanted this sublime archangel at His side in His first creative works, and wanted him to know about the future of His creation of love, so God wanted him to know the adorable and sorrowful necessity that his sin would have imposed on God: the Incarnation and Death of a God to counterbalance the ruin from the Sin that would have been created should Lucifer not have conquered pride in himself. Love could not but speak this language. God's first annihilation is in this act of wanting to bend sweetly, gently, this proud [archangel]; and with the vision of what his pride would have imposed on God, almost imploring him not to sin, and thus bring others to sin. It was an act of love.

Lucifer, already become a Satan, took this act as fear, weakness and an insult, as a declaration of war. And he stirred up war against the Most Perfect, saying:

'You are? I also am. Whatever You made, it was for me You made it. There is no God. And if there is a God, I am [he]. I adore myself. I detest You. I refuse to recognize as my Lord One Who does not know how to conquer me. You should not have created me so perfect if You wanted no rivals. Now I am and I am against You. Conquer me, if You can. But I do not fear You.  I, too, will create; and because of me Your Creation will tremble, for I will shake it like a shred of cloud caught by the winds. For I hate You and I want to destroy whatever is Yours, to create upon its ruins that which will be mine. I neither know nor recognize any other power outside of myself. And I no longer adore, no longer adore, NO LONGER ADORE any other than myself.'

Truly then in Creation, in all Creation, from the lowest [form] to the very depths, there was a horrendous convulsion from the horror of these sacrilegious words. A convulsion such as will not [again] be until the end of Creation. And from it was born Hell: the kingdom of Hate.

My soul [i.e. Maria Valtorta], do you understand how Evil was born? From a free will, and, being respected as such by God, from one who was not 'all love.' And believe it: upon every fault which is committed from then on is this judgment: 'Here there is not all love.' Complete love forbids one to sin; and without any effort. He who loves does not toil to reach justice! Love carries him above all the mire and dangers, and from moment to moment purifies him from barely apparent imperfections that are still there in the last step of consummate holiness: in that state in which the spirit is so [far] developed as to be truly a king, already united by spiritual marriage to its Lord, enjoying but one step less than that which is the life of the blessed in Heaven: so much does God give Himself and reveal Himself to His blessed child.

Glory to the Father, to the Son, to the Holy Spirit."

[Note in particular that Satan used the divine title "I am" to cast himself as a god. But only our true God can use such a Divine Title, as He did at the burning bush when He had conversations with Moses. When asked by Moses how to reply to those who might ask for the name of who had sent him to deliver Israel from bondage from the hands of the Egyptians, God said: " I AM WHO I AM." ...  "I AM has sent me to you."  (Ex.2-13.14).]

Saint Joseph the Worker... 1 May 2008.   1 May of each year, a day celebrated by many workers around the world, is really all about honouring great Saint Joseph the Worker, the working foster Father and sweet guardian of the Son of God, Jesus Christ, true God and true Man, the Almighty and Eternity.

Saint Joseph is the patron of the Universal Church, and his ancestry can be traced back to king David.

But in every day life, by trade, Saint Joseph was a carpenter, an ordinary working man, a Father labouring hard to provide for His Family, to put food on the table. Like other families, He no doubt endured similar hardships, if not more. He and His Family even had to flee at very short notice, in the middle of the night, from king Herod who wanted to destroy the infant Jesus. Saint Joseph had the added awesome responsibility of looking after God's most precious Treasures, His Son Jesus and Jesus' Mother, Mary, the perpetual and ever Virgin.

Saint Joseph was the model of the truly "just" man, and of a father and husband, "... for he was a right minded man..."     (Matt.1.19).

Saint Joseph was not rich in material goods, but was rich in countless virtues.

Jesus says: "Behold the patron of all the just."    [The Writings of Maria Valtorta.]

The Ascension Of The Lord... feast day, 4 May 2008.   Some of the countless authorities that attest to the Ascension of the Lord Jesus Christ, true God and true Man, the Almighty and Eternity, are as follows:

"When He had led them out as far as Bethany, He lifted up His hands and blessed them; and even as He blessed them He parted from them, and was carried up into Heaven."     (Luke 24.50-51).

"... until the day came when He was taken up into Heaven."     (Acts 1.2).

"  '... you are to be My witnesses in Jerusalem and throughout Judaea, in Samaria, yes, and to the ends of the earth.'  When He had said this, they saw him lifted up, and a cloud caught him away from their sight. And as they strained their eyes towards Heaven, to watch His journey, all at once two men in white garments were standing at their side. 'Men of Galilee,' they said, 'why do you stand here looking heavenwards? He who has been taken from you into Heaven, this same Jesus, will come back in the same fashion, just as you have watched Him going into Heaven.' "     (Acts 1.8-11).

"But he (i.e. Saint Stephen, the first Christian martyr, just before being stoned to death), full of the Holy Spirit, fastened his eyes on Heaven, and saw there the glory of God, and Jesus standing at God's right hand..."     (Acts 7.55).

" '... Saul, Saul, why dost thou persecute me?' 'Who art thou, Lord?' he asked. And He said,  'I am Jesus, whom Saul persecutes.'   "     (Acts 9.4-5).

"... when Jesus Christ, who died, nay, has risen again, and sits at the right hand of God, is pleading for us..."     (Rom.8.34).

The Ascension of Jesus is, of course, established dogma of the Catholic faith, and is clearly stated in part of the Apostles' Creed, as follows:

"... He ascended into Heaven and is seated at the right hand of God, the Father Almighty. From thence He shall come again to judge the living and the dead..."

The Holy Trinity...... feast day, 18 May 2008.    Who is God? God is the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit. Three Persons, the Holy Trinity, yet one God, One and Three.

To man, the Holy Trinity, God, One and Triune, is indeed an unfathomable Mystery, well beyond man's understanding and intellect. But true faith allows us to believe in this eternal Truth.

According to the "Translator":  

"The story is told in Christian lore of how the brilliant theologian and Doctor of the Church, St. Augustine of Hippo [a city in once Roman Africa, but today's Annaba on the coast of Algeria], used to ponder long and hard on the greatest mystery of the Christian faith: the Holy Trinity, as he tried to understand it. Strolling along the seashore one day while pondering how there could be three Persons in one God, he noticed a small child seemingly at play on the beach. He watched how the child repeatedly scooped up water from the sea in a shell and carried it to a hole in the sand into which he emptied the water. Then returning to the water's edge, the child refilled the shell and repeated the process over and over. Curious, Augustine walked over and asked the child what he was doing. Smiling up at him the child said, 'I am emptying the sea into this hole.' Amused at the child's naivete, Augustine replied, 'Why, even if you spent your whole life at this task, child, you could never complete it. The sea is far too vast and deep to be contained in so small a hole!' The child looked up solemnly at Augustine and said: 'Yet I will complete this task before you can ever understand the Mystery on which you ponder' – and with that, the child vanished. Augustine then realised that he was a messenger sent to him by God to point out the futility of his efforts to understand this Mystery."

We are indeed grateful and indebted to the "Translator," from whose generous gratuitous labours we are benefiting. He has opened and lifted up for us the Lid of the Glory Box of the Lord, in order to enable us to delight in, and spiritually prosper from, God's fabulous Treasures. The website of the "Translator" is as follows:

United States:   http://www.bardstown.com/%7Ebrchrys/

Marian Movement of Priests ("MMP")... Our Lady's beloved sons  --  the laity too can join spiritually.    The Marian Movement of Priests ("MMP"), priests who have consecrated themselves to Our Lady, the Madonna, the Blessed Virgin Mary, takes its origin from a pilgrimage to Fatima, Portugal, undertaken on 8 May 1972 by Fr. Stefano (Stephen) Gobbi, who received thereat an interior locution from Our Lady, the Madonna.

These priests individually consecrate themselves to Our Lady's Immaculate Heart, to be strongly united to the Pope and to the Catholic Church united to him, with the purpose of leading the faithful into the secure refuge of Her motherly Heart.

In October 1972, the first gathering of the MMP took place in Italy, that consisted of just three priests, that of Fr. Stefano and two other priests.

From that initial small gathering of three priests, from that first seed, the MMP has germinated enormously, grown in an extraordinary way, with regional centres established throughout every part of the world, that altogether have about 300 bishops and more than sixty thousand priests dedicated to Our Lady's wishes. These bishops and priests have been drawn from diocesan clergy, all the orders, and from religious congregations. Tens of millions of lay people have also joined the Marian Movement.

The MMP, a work of Our Lady, the Madonna, performs predominantly spiritually, and is partially assisted via the distribution and dissemination of its book, "To The Priests, Our Lady's Beloved Sons." This book may be obtained from:   

• Australia:

Marian Movement of Priests
PO Box 636
Castle Hill  NSW  1765
Australia

• Italy (International Headquarters):

Movimento Sacerdotale Mariano
Via Terrugia, 14
20162 Milano
Italy

Official Website: http://www.msm-mmp.org/

• United States:

Marian Movement of Priests
PO Box 8
St. Francis, Maine  04774-0008
USA

Website:  http://www.mmp-usa.net/ 
Email address:  mmp@mmp-usa.net 

"Surely the Lord God does nothing
     without revealing his secret
     to his servants the prophets."      (Amos 3.7).

The book is an eye opener, containing numerous private revelations given by Our Lady, the Madonna, the Blessed Virgin Mary, the Father's masterpiece of Beauty, true Mother of Jesus Christ, Son of God, and true Mother of men.

Some of the revelations outlined in the book also explain many pages of the Apocalypse of Saint John.

The book, which consists of some 970 pages, cannot for obvious reasons be quoted here at length, but some excerpts of these revelations of Our Lady, the Madonna, are as follows:

"Offer me the most beautiful fruit:  the Marian Movement of Priests. I accept it; I bless it; and I guard it jealously."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 18.d).

"This is the lot which awaits my beloved sons:   my Immaculate Heart, about which they will, for all eternity, form its most beautiful crown of glory."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 163.c).

"I am the way which leads you to Jesus. I am the safest and shortest way, the necessary way for each one of you [all of us Her children, including the laity]. If you refuse to go along this way, you run  the danger of being lost in the course of your journey."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 204.l).

"O New Jerusalem, Church of Jesus, true Israel of God."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 242.e).

"Your neighbour is not loved: every day attacks are made upon his life and his goods. Man is becoming ever more corrupt, godless, wicked and cruel. A chastisement worse than the flood is about to come upon this poor and perverted humanity. Fire will descend from heaven, and this will be the sign that the justice of God has of now fixed the hour of his great manifestation."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 362.g).

"... in order to prepare you for the end of the times, because these are about to take place in your days."   (Fr. Stefano Gobbi 485.z).

Jesus said: "A wish of My Mother is a law for Me."    [The Writings of Maria Valtorta.]

Next month, this article on the Marian Movement of Priests can be accessed via the following link:  Marian Movement of Priests.

CDO - Collateralised Debt Obligations - the cause of the subprime credit crises.   At the heart of the current credit crisis in the United States has been the mysterious CDO, which term is an acronym for collateralised debt obligations.

Essentially, CDOs have been bundles of mainly disparate mortgages and similar debt, put together by savvy Wall Street firms, and then flogged off as investments to unsuspecting investors at a huge profit. These debt instruments, these CDOs camouflaged with the skin of investments, offered the allure of a prima facie high yield, while concurrently masking the true extent of the true risks involved, risks that have now come home to roost in a big way as a result of the US credit crisis precipitated initially by sub-prime mortgages defaults.

Some years back, I was somewhat perplexed by the invention and pronounced extensive marketing of this new plaything that then germinated on Wall Street. At the time, I couldn't understand why anyone would have wanted to invest in such an obscure and not readily definable investment vehicle.

Many of these investors in CDOs have been government and semi-government authorities around the world, such as local municipal councils which, at the best of times, are easy prey to slick marketeers.

The fallen house of cards is pretty easy to follow. Interest rates in the United States rose a near five-fold (5) over a short period of two (2) years, and so many mortgagees defaulted, rendering the values of those mortgages and of their re-marketed final CDOs down, and so on. The current holders of these CDOs are therefore obliged, by virtue of accounting principles, to mark them down to market, i.e. to provide a provision for the diminution of their values and to charge such diminution as an expense in their financial accounts. Such a charge would require public disclosure and an accompanying reduction in reported profit.

The ramifications of the debacle will slowly unfold in the years ahead, snaring the odd reckless fishes who got too smart by half, who took too many risks and lost. Like the game of musical chairs, the music stopped, and they got left standing (exposed to the risks and losses).

As a side comment, tent dwellers in many US cities have grown, as a result of people walking away from their  mortgages and their homes.

In other past more transparent times, a person with a temporary mortgage repayment problem would have gone to his local loan officer, typically at a bank, and renegotiated the repayments. But with these CDOs, the owner of the mortgage is typically unknown to the mortgagee, who effectively therefore gets precluded from renegotiating and therefore defaults and simply walks away in exasperation. In such an uncertain scenario, both parties have lost, which losses might conceivably have been mitigated or avoided had the CDO financial instrument not been there.

Some time in the future, I might, if so inclined, deal with another grey plaything in high places in high finance, usually called SWAPS, which are a vast darling among financial institutions, especially among their dealers who try to exude superior sophistication and who usually wake up in the morning with a sore neck (because of their attempts to kiss themselves each night). These SWAPS rarely ever get alluded to in the mass media, most of which has been dumbed down to moronic base levels, revelling on gossiping about who has been sleeping with whom and about other trivia which the seriously minded do not want to know.

Russian Nuclear Missiles...  possible deployment in Serbia?    Trouble continues to brew between Serbia and the European Union (and NATO) in relation to (now Muslim) Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. NATO has military hardware and thousands of its troops deployed in Kosovo, keeping the "peace" there.

(Once Christian Orthodox) Kosovo was an integral and historic part of Serbia. In the past, much Serbian blood was shed over its Kosovo province, to defend it.

But what had happened slowly, over time, was that (Muslim) ethnic Albanians simply walked over the adjacent border and started to illegally settle in then (Christian Orthodox) Kosovo.

Having over time gained a majority in Kosovo, these Albanians and their descendants have now broken away from Serbia and have set up their own independent state, obviously with the patent blessing of their native and ancestral homeland, Albania.

But Russia's former President Vladimir Putin has already admonished the leaders of Kosovo, warning them that their declaration of independence by them is not supported by Russia.

Now Russia is an ally of Serbia, both being ethnic slavs and Orthodox Christians, and naturally enough Russia would view the political developments in Kosovo as an opportunity to deploy its own nuclear missiles in Serbia in order to countervail the United States' deployment of its missile defence systems in Europe that has seen Russia being surrounded by American and European military hardware, and therefore obviously feels threatened.

A deployment of Russian military hardware in Serbia would revert the world back to the Cold War era, another failure of the hopelessly inept Bush Administration, who view themselves as the new Romans (in the vast expanse in the dreams of the Bush Administration).

Up its sleave, though, Russia now has a nasty mighty weapon, a lethal supersonic missile which the US Pentagon has labelled as, the "Sizzler." The missile, which is freely available in the market from its Russian manufacturer and which is already believed to be in the hands of China and perhaps of Iran, is easily capable of destroying the once mighty aircraft carriers of the United States and of others, sending them to the bottom of the sea along with their cargoes. The "Sizzler" is easily capable of destroying them, and this is not an over statement.

The United States' mighty aircraft carriers are now practically useless and vulnerable, as they currently have no defences against the "Sizzler."   The "Sizzler" is accurate.

And even the US cruise missiles are not altogether reliable, either, for reasons which would be too lengthy to elaborate.

True, the United Sates is a superpower, but much of its prowess is mainly dependent on the sophisticated electronics that drive its hardware. And therein lies the weakness in its strength. Electronics and accompanying signals can be stymied, by countervailing electronic beams. An example of this occurred at the outset of Bush's War against Iraq. Someone had used technology that diverted some cruise missiles off target, down to the ground, and obviously this can be repeated.

The world has not gotten any safer since the end of the Cold War. Nations continue to expand their defensive and offensive hardware, now also including in space. The peace is only slightly below the surface, ever ready to erupt in hostilities.

But the worrying question has surely got to be posed.

Has Kosovo's secession from Serbia set a dangerous precedent ??

Are there more Kosovo-like areas, where people have simply walked over, or flown in, to settle in other people's territory?

Methinks one should now look at Europe itself, where many "no-go" areas have already been set up by non-European immigrants and their offspring. Will the leaders of these "no-go" areas in time declare independence? Far fetched? Now maybe, but not in 20-100 years' time as happened in Kosovo, which now seems irretrievably lost to Serbia.

Then there is also the United States which, with lightning speed, recognised Kosovo's secession from Serbia.

But most of the southern areas of the United States were originally Mexico's territory, which the United States took during Mexico's period of internal weakness, and these areas are predominantly populated by Mexican and other Hispanic peoples. Would the United States recognise these areas as independent if they chose to secede from the United States?

I ask again:  Has Kosovo's secession from Serbia set a dangerous precedent ??

Ryde City Council, and the "Ryde Town Centre."   For more information on the over development, click here.

Update Of Regular Economic Features

Kindly note that the following updates, under this heading, sometimes involve minor changes from month to month. But such changes might just have important ramifications.

Australian Bourse.  Last month, on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), the All Ordinaries index rose 4.6% and, in respect of the month prior to that, the index fell 4.7%. 

To view a comparative graph, in index form, on the All Ordinaries index v. Dow Jones Industrial Average v. Nasdaq Composite Index v. market value of The Share Trader's portfolio, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

Australia also has two regional Bourses, namely, the Bendigo Stock Exchange and the Newcastle Stock Exchange. The mass media rarely reports on these two Bourses.

Australian Interest Rates.   At its last meeting held on 1 April 2008, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the official interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, obviously taking due cognisance of not raising rates in view of the then prevailing turmoil in domestic and world credit markets. The rate should have been cut, rather than having left it unchanged, as evidence of a downturn in the economy was evident.

At the time, while the prevailing high official interest rate was hyped up as being needed in order to cool the then perceived hot economy, the economy was nonetheless perceived as being hot due to, not only the enormous spend in the minerals industry which has been experiencing boom conditions, but also the hot money pouring into the country as a result of the high interest rate differential existing between Australian and US interest rates.

So, in essence, the minerals industry is overheated, making heaps and heaps of money, and contributing disproportionately to increased input costs and so inflation, but altogether someone else, the innocent mortgage home owners get punished with high interest rates in order to cool the booming minerals industry.

One group makes money, but another group is made to lose money.

This continuing state of affairs is not fair.  Not Just.  Not equitable. It's the old truth, the rich get to be even richer, and the poor, even poorer.

It is the rich booming minerals industry that needs to be cooled, not the mortgage home owners in the suburbs who are struggling to meet their repayments.

Nonetheless, additionally, Australian interest rates are also being held relatively high in order to attract foreign investment, so as to finance the existing enormous foreign debt, which has built up over the years as a direct result of globalisation and of the failed free trade policies implemented by successive Federal Governments. Both major political parties are responsible for this debacle.

Despite the boom in the minerals industry, when Australia should be swimming in export income, yet the foreign debt keeps on ballooning, worsening, with no end in sight. Imports continue to flood in, to exceed exports, month after month, for countless years, adding to the foreign debt.

The next official meeting of the Reserve Bank is set for 6-7 May 2008.

To view a comparative graph, in actual form, on the Australian dollar, and Australian and US interest rates, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

Australian Dollar.   The Australian dollar has been mixed, both strengthening due largely to the now rising differential existing between Australian and US interest rates, and strengthening due largely to the Australian mineral exports boom and to the weakening US dollar.

So what's predominantly driving or moving the Australian dollar at this time?

At present, the predominant factors affecting the Australian dollar are the current mineral exports boom, the sinking US dollar, the level of foreign debt, interest rates, and the interest rate differential between Australian and US interest rates. The rate of inflation is usually also a major driver, but not so at the moment.

To view a comparative graph, in actual form, on the Australian dollar and the Australian foreign debt, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

To view a comparative graph, in actual form, on the Australian dollar, and Australian and US interest rates, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

To view a comparative graph, in actual form, on the Australian dollar, and the difference between Australian interest rates and United States interest rates, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

To view a comparative graph, in index form, on the Australian dollar v. the United States dollar v. the Japanese yen v. the European euro v. UK pound, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

Australian Economy.   According to the latest official statistics, the Australian economy (GDP) grew 0.6% during the December 2007 quarter, and this translates into an annualised rate of 3.9% for this same quarter.

The GDP growth rate in respect of calendar year 2007 was 3.9%.

The GDP growth rate in respect of calendar year 2006 was 2.8%.

To view a comparative graph, in index form, on the All Ordinaries index and the Australian gross domestic product, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

Currently, Australia has free trade agreements with the United States, New Zealand, Thailand, and Singapore. And some sort of discussions about free trade also seems to be taking place with Indonesia, Japan, China, India, and Malaysia.

These so-called free trade agreements are fast transforming Australia into a country with high real unemployment and an economy dominated mainly by big miners and big farmers, and suffering from the debilitating effects of near monopolies.

United States Bourse.    Last month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 5.9%. This contrasts with the month prior to that, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03% and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4%.

To view a comparative graph, in index form, on the All Ordinaries index v. Dow Jones Industrial Average v. Nasdaq Composite Index v. market value of The Share Trader's portfolio, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

United States Interest Rates.   At its last official meeting held on 29-30 April 2008, the US Federal Reserve Board cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.0%.

While the cut in the interest rate was a good move in the short term in order to calm the financial markets, the rate will probably have to rise, in the long term, as a matter of sheer necessity, in order to countervail the adverse consequences arising from the massive internal and external deficits being racked up by the Bush Administration, which is printing and spending and wasting money as if there's no tomorrow.

The next official meeting of the US Federal Reserve Board has been set for 24-25 June 2008.

To view a comparative graph, in actual form, on the Australian dollar, and Australian and US interest rates, covering the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, click here.

United States Dollar.   In these times, the US dollar has been weakening, depreciating, due mainly to the Bush Administration's pursuit of reckless economic policies, and due also to the uncertainties surrounding the United States' reversion back to heavy deficit financing, i.e. printing more and more paper money in order to fund its ongoing multiple wars, against terrorism, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and possibly elsewhere such as Iran, Syria, and North Korea. 

United States Economy.   If you believe the official figures, the US economy (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 3.4% per annum in the June 2007 quarter.

The US economy is presently experiencing massive and escalating internal and external deficits, being the twin deficits of budget and trade, with no end in sight. The US government debt has also reached alarming proportions, with worrisome implications for the economies of the rest of the world.

The US economy seems to be repeating the economic and political malaise of the Vietnam War era. It is presently not clear whether or not the US economy has really recovered. In time it should, due to the current massive injection of new money from the Bush Administration's printing press.

Chinese Renminbi (Yuan).   The renminbi is of course the official name given to the Chinese domestic currency, the yuan, which was finally revalued on 22 July 2005. The revaluation came about only after years of intense IMF, US, and EU criticism of Chinese Government currency and trade practices. It remains to be seen how this change of currency policy is actually implemented in practice, over the long term.

Prior to 22 July 2005, for a decade, the renminbi (yuan) was fixed at around 8.27 per 1 US dollar, and this resulted in accusations being made against the Chinese Government for engaging in mercantilism, a system of economic regulation expressly or covertly designed to bolster exports and discourage imports on an ongoing basis.

As a result of its trading practices, China has amassed enormous wealth and foreign currency reserves, and continues to do so.

The Share Trader

Overview.   Most main equity markets around the world opened rather strongly at the beginning of last month, in follow on from the lead provided by Wall Street on 1 April 2008, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 394 points (3.21%) and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 84 points (3.67). This strong bounce arose from lessening pessimistic sentiments in relation to financial institutions, in consequence of some of them having successfully raised new capital to support their businesses. The shares of some of these financial institutions rose, and the rising tide lifted most stocks.

This opening strong bounce was in marked contrast to what happened during the previous month, during March 2008, when equity prices oscillated rather wildly as a result of the then continuing subprime mortgage credit woes in the United States, and of the fears of a resultant recession there, arising from those credit woes.

The opening strong performance during early April 2008 was a great relief, with the hope that the worst elements of the credit crisis was abating.

Mid month, things didn't change much, and price volatility continued.

Towards month's end, most equity markets were up for the month, but yet closed on a bearish note still obviously cognisant of the the looming recession in the United States.

Thankfully, The Share Trader's portfolio is still up, even though it took a gradual, sinking hit from February 2002 to June 2003, a time of war uncertainties and belligerence about Iraq. Since start up, the market value of the portfolio has climbed to $32,896, up 110%, as at the end of last month and, in respect of the month prior to that, the market value was also up, 121%. Click here for graph.

Purchases.   Since the last issue, during last month, no stocks were acquired.

Sales.   Since the last issue, during last month, no stocks were sold.

Stocks Currently Held - Comments.   As at the end of last month, 30 April 2008, The Share Trader held the following stocks in the portfolio:

Centrebet International ("Centrebet").    Since the last issue, during last month, the share price weakened towards month's end.

Latest known developments.   Centrebet continues on.

Summary of comments made over the previous months. Centrebet is an online wagering and gaming company, with ambitions of expanding its operations into Europe and elsewhere. But the company's success in the long term will largely depend on expanding its products range and on the geographical areas covered by its operations.

Lately, Centrebet announced a major new initiative to its business, an online sportsbook to be called, SportOdds, in conjunction with its Managing Director and a major Australian newspaper, which is expected to provide substantial promotional and marketing clout to SportOdds. Further details are awaited about this new venture.

In respect of the year ended 30 June 2007, Centrebet reported a net profit of $A 11.1 million.

In respect of the year ended 30 June 2006, Centrebet reported a net profit of $A 2.8 million.

Eagle Bay Resources Limited ("Eagle").    Since the last issue, during last month, the share price weakened towards month's end.

Latest known developments. Some time back, Eagle completed the drilling of the fourth wildcat exploration well, Jasmine-1, and it was a dud, that sent the share price of Eagle down and down.

Summary of comments made over the previous months. Eagle has a number of mineral and petroleum interests around Australia, with some prospective finds.

In respect of the year ended 30 June 2007, Eagle reported a net loss of $A 2.6 million.

In respect of the year ended 30 June 2006, Eagle reported a net loss of $A 1.5 million.

But most exploration companies, such as Eagle, usually incur losses until such time as they get to produce something at a profit, provided that they are lucky enough to find something tangible, a resource, and then have the requisite expertise to convert that resource find into surplus money to bank.

iiNet Limited("iiNet").    Since the last issue, during last month, the share price weakened towards month's end.

Latest known developments. During the month, 3.0 cps dividends were received. iiNet continues on.

Summary of comments made over the previous months. iiNet is a telecommunications company, with interests in telephony, and the internet.

National Australia Bank Limited("NAB").    Since the last issue, during last month, the share price strengthened towards month's end.

Latest known developments. NAB continues on, as a typical bank.

Summary of comments made over the previous months. NAB is a major Australian bank, having also banking interests overseas especially in Britain and, more recently, in the United States. It has dominant interests in Clydesdale Bank, Yorkshire Bank, Bank of New Zealand, and MLC.

In respect of the year ended 30 June 2007, NAB reported a net profit of $A 4,578 million.

In respect of the year ended 30 June 2006, NAB reported a net profit of $A 4,392 million.

Stocks Currently Held - Financial.   The stocks currently held in the portfolio, together with any residual cash, appear hereunder in alphabetical order.

Warning.   Readers or other who deal in the above stocks, and in those mentioned below or elsewhere in this publication or in this website, do so at their own risk. Refer also to the disclaimer below and to the adjacent Table of Contents for further details on Cosepp Corporation Pty Limited's non acceptance of any responsibility of any kind whatsoever. Any of the above stocks, those below, or any other, may be sold or purchased at any time, in any quantities and in any manner whatsoever.

Disclosure.   At the time of writing, Cosepp Corporation Pty Limited, the owner and publisher of this column and newspaper, had an indirect beneficial interest in the shares of all the stocks discussed above and/or below as follows:  Centrebet International Limited, Eagle Bay Resources Limited, iiNet Limited, and National Australian Bank Limited. These beneficial interests may change at any time in any way whatsoever, without any notices or conditions. See also the important warning above and the disclaimer below.

Portfolio Performance.   The market value of The Share Trader's portfolio, as at the end of each month, since the beginning from mid February-March 2000 with an initial start up capital of $A15,597, has been as follows:

The Share Trader's Portfolio as at  30 April 2008

Market Value:   $A32,896,  up 110% Start Up Capital:     $A15,597

Market Value of The Share Trader's Portfolio v. 3 Indices.   To view a comparative graph, in index form, showing the market value of The Share Trader's portfolio, the All Ordinaries index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, click here. The comparative graph covers the period from 1 February 2000 to 31 December 2007, and it is expected to be updated only once yearly. The graph clearly and unequivocally demonstrates how well The Share Trader's portfolio has indeed outperformed all the 3 indices.

Completed Trades.    The Share Trader's latest 2 completed trades, together with the link to view all the other completed ones, appear hereunder, in reverse chronological order of completion.

Disclaimer

Cosepp Corporation Pty Limited does not provide advice on shares to the general public nor to clients in any way whatsoever. Cosepp Corporation Pty Limited, its officers, its employees, and any other person or entity mentioned herein accept or bear no responsibility for this publication's contents, accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness, or other. This publication is only about general discussion, and is not intended to constitute any form of recommendation in any way whatsoever, including any possible recommendation which may so be construed on what to buy or not buy or sell or not sell or hold or other, either similar or distant or directly or indirectly, or other. A person reading this publication should not rely on the information provided, but instead should discuss the issues raised with his or her own adviser who, necessarily having details of his or her individual particulars, would have due regard to his or her specific circumstances, requirements, and objectives.

Legal Jurisdiction.   The proper law arising from any matter whatsoever in this publication, or anything else on this website, shall be the law of the State of New South Wales and all disputes shall be dealt with in the Courts of that jurisdiction.

© 1993-2008 Cosepp Corporation Pty Limited ACN 001 557 633 ABN 59 001 557 633